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Collier County Sheriff’s Office Long-Range Master Plan

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Collier County Sheriff’s Office Long-Range Master Plan

Metro Forecasting Models discovered how to forecast Calls for Service (CFS) using land use and population forecast data.

The Collier County Sheriff’s Office Long-Range Master Plan was established to address the long-term needs of the sheriff’s office. Previously, the sheriff’s office had a long-term planning horizon of approximately 10 years into the future. The Sheriff’s Office Long-Range Master Plan accounts for the need for additional employees, facilities, and patrol districts for over 50 years of growth.

To understand law enforcement needs over 50 years into the future, the potential number of incidents was forecasted using a unique prediction model. The number of forecasted incidents was used to project the workload of Law Enforcement Officers and support personnel. Then, the workload forecast was used to understand the need for long-term hiring and future facilities. The comprehensive method applied in the long-range plan allowed the sheriff’s office to extend their planning horizon by 25 years.


“The [Long-Range Master Plan] far exceeded expectations and will serve the agency well in preparing for future needs and challenges related to anticipated area growth.” – Chief Greg Smith