Metro Forecasting Models
Metro Forecasting Models
Metro Forecasting Models
Metro Forecasting Models

Who We Are

Who We Are Sigmoid Curve

The sigmoidal curve utilized by MFM is proven to be highly accurate versus the linear extrapolations used by competitors that either overestimate or underestimate growth.

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The Most Accurate Model Available

Metro Forecasting Models is the most accurate solution for Population, Housing and Commercial Demand forecasting. Our model has been used by local governments and private industry for over 35 years. Most methods used by other firms to forecast population growth are highly inaccurate because they use linear extrapolations, which do not reflect the realities of how populations grow. Metro Forecasting Models proprietary methodology utilizes non-linear extrapolations that make our forecasts more accurate than any other available tool. See our Tab on What We Do.

The MFM disaggregate forecast is comprised of many thousands of data points from each Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) including specific attributes for every parcel within the MSA. We then group the collected data in hundreds or thousands of discrete areas known in the planning industry as Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZ for short). A TAZ is a specific geographic area that contains many lots/parcels/tracts with a combined population of less than 3,000 people. This is much smaller than our competitors’ standard block groups.

For example, our model disaggregates the Ft Myers, Florida Metro Area into 1,434 discrete zones and forecasts population growth for each of these zones. This results in the most accurate method available to forecast when, where and how populations will grow up to 80 years into the future and the demands and opportunities that will be created by that population growth with 98% accuracy.

Historically, and unfortunately, population forecasts have underestimated growth for fast growing areas and overestimated growth in areas where the population is beginning to level out. Accurate population forecasting is necessary to optimize the return on both public and private investment. For example, underestimating growth results in infrastructure that becomes obsolete before it reaches its useful life. Overestimating growth can result in premature financial investment and under-utilization of capital improvements. Also, other negative impacts can result such as low economic activity, lower property values and poor quality of life from inappropriate apportionment of land uses to meet future needs. The model has been used to forecast the need for roads, utilities, housing, school plant planning, retail commercial development and innumerable other applications. Please see Use Cases under What We Do

Forecasts Generated by Complex Proven Mathematical Algorithms

Not only does Metro Forecasting Models accurately forecast where and when population will grow, it also forecasts the demand for municipal infrastructure like schools, fire stations, utilities, and parks as well as demand for housing development, demand for commercial goods and services and industrial development.

Most companies and agencies mentally forecast growth based on what has happened during the past 1 - 2 years. If last year demonstrated low or no growth then next year will be the same or worse under that scenario. If last year was a good year then next year will be just as good or better according to flawed conventional wisdom.

MFM forecasts provide the data needed to make intelligent decisions when investing capital resources or developing long term plans.

Would you like to know?

  1. When and where development will take place in a metro area?
  2. When and where a neighborhood shopping center should be located?
  3. When there will be a market to support a neighborhood shopping center?
  4. When and where a utility company needs to make new capital investment to serve future demands?
  5. Where to buy land for a new housing project?
  6. How to maintain a competitive edge on your competitors?
  7. When and where rezoning is justified based on future demands of a growing population
  8. When and where to invest public funds to build new schools, fire stations, government centers etc.?
  9. How much land to zone for industrial uses to help balance a growing metro area so that jobs are available for the population after the construction boom is over?


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