Services

Metro Forecasting Models uses its data for a variety of analyses, presentations, budgets, and plans. Our offered services are combined to satisfy the unique problems of each client. The following described services represent a small portion of what is possible for data-driven planning.

The Interactive Growth Model® is a sophisticated land use model that demonstrates when and where growth is most likely to occur over time. Interactive Growth Model® forecasts incorporate a variety of social and economic factors.

The land use model is based on an inventory of all existing structures and land. Then, growth factors are developed based on local policy and applied to simulate residential and nonresidential development over time. The result of the land use model is an accurate forecast of future residential units, population, and demand for essential services.

Most growth projections do not account for real development potential. Metro Forecasting Models uses revolutionary land use modeling technologies to account for the actual drivers of growth like vacant land, zoning, housing demand, wetland impairment, endangered species, and proximity to arterial roadways and public utilities. Clients of Metro Forecasting Models use the most defensible, dependable data to forecast growth for their capital plans and investments.

See the 10 different ways Collier County has used the Collier Interactive Growth Model.

Quantify the precise amount of land your area has left to develop until Buildout. Ensure the land is used wisely and benefits the community for generations to come.

The Interactive Growth Model® uses detailed land use and demographic data to deliver the most accurate current year and long-range population forecasts available. The IGM’s population forecasts can be broken down into custom study areas to meet the needs of each project.

A variety of social, economic, and spatial factors increase or decrease the rate of growth in an area. In places where growth is just beginning, linear projections miss the mark- underestimating growth and failing to plan for the community’s needs. In more developed communities, linear projections overestimate growth when there is minimal land available to support further residential development.

Most population forecasts are not spatial. Knowing how cities, neighborhoods, and planning areas will develop and what their needs will be is absolutely essential in planning for growth. The Interactive Growth Model® has been approved as an acceptable alternative to BEBR population forecasts by the Florida Economic Development Office (EDO).

See how the Village of Estero used special population forecasts to understand their future impact fee revenue.

The Interactive Growth Model® has one of the most accurate processes for forecasting housing units and population over time. To determine residential demand, the model uses a series of complex algorithms to anticipate housing development and distribute it over the forecast period to the areas where potential development is likely to occur.

By calculating the most realistic growth scenario according to future land use restrictions and policy, the IGM accurately forecasts future housing demand as single family or multifamily. The forecasted residential supply reflects the results of zoning and future land use policies so they can be adjusted to meet the community’s goals.

The Interactive Growth Model® is used to compare the demand and supply of commercial and industrial space. The model uses accurate population forecast data to determine the realistic location and timing for increasing commercial and industrial space.

Commercial demand is determined by population growth. As an area grows, the residents require additional commercial space be developed to support employment and essential services. Commercial space is forecasted and planned as future commercial shopping centers (neighborhood, community, regional), ancillary commercial, and hotel rooms. The model keeps a “land use budget” so planners can estimate if and when the area will “run out” of zoned land to satisfy the needs of a growing community.

Industrial design is determined by the amount of industrial space required to maintain its existing proportion of industrial space per person. Industrial design is used to compare the amount of industrially-zoned land available to the increasing needs of a growing population. The model does not calculate “demand” for industrial because zoning industrial is a policy decision versus a community necessity.

See how the City of Cape Coral strategically allocated commercial land to balance the tax-base.

The Interactive Growth Model® demonstrates when and where future facilities for parks, schools, police stations, fire stations, and media centers will be needed based on actual population growth. Because the IGM applies an especially long planning horizon, forecasted needs can be addressed rapidly to ensure a high Level of Service for future residents.

Planning for future government facilities is a tedious process of strategic planning and budgeting which takes years to accomplish. With the Interactive Growth Model®, the first few phases of the planning process are taken care of. By identifying the government facilities which will be needed over an exceptionally long period of time (until Buildout), we can determine the appropriate timing and sizing of current facilities. By understanding the need for all future facilities, ideal sites can be selected and buildings properly sized to ensure adequate coverage.

See how the Interactive Growth Model® helped the Greater Naples Fire District consolidate and select sites for future fire stations.

Tribes trust Metro Forecasting Models to provide dependable population and land use data for their plans, budgets, and analyses. It is vital tribes understand and quantify their anticipated membership so tribal leaders can make the best decisions for their tribe’s land and members. By detecting crucial changes in the tribe’s demographics early, strengths and weaknesses can be identified and addressed strategically.

Metro Forecasting Models is equipped to handle highly-sensitive population information, such as blood quantum ratios and forecast how these specific factors will affect tribal population growth. By thoroughly utilizing available data, Metro Forecasting Models ensures the results of plans are effective for meeting the tribe’s long-term goals.

Because of the privacy of sensitive tribal data, we prefer not to share the specifics of our tribal planning work on our website. If you would like more specific information about how we can help your tribe, contact us.

The Interactive Growth Model® serves as an ideal data service for transportation planning and modeling. The model delivers accurate socioeconomic data by the Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ). The data is used by transportation planners to pinpoint resident home and employment locations.

Socioeconomic data provided by the IGM serves as a unique base for Origin and Destination determination and planning. The Interactive Growth Model® is one of the only planning tools to accurately account for existing commercial space geographically. The model also forecasts the most-likely locations for future commercial services.

The IGM has been used for analysis on Vehicle Miles Travelled (VMT) and greenhouse gas reduction. In Collier County, planners wanted to demonstrate the impact of a potential future neighborhood shopping center on residents’ VMT. The analysis revealed if a shopping center were not planned nearby, residents would drive to another location for household necessities, resulting in millions of additional VMT annually. The analysis was used to demonstrate the importance of locating commercial services near residents in order to reduce the impact on infrastructure and enhance quality of life for residents.

See how socioeconomic forecast data was used to form the 2045 Lee County MPO Long-Range Transportation Plan.

Plan for the community you want by understanding the community you have. The Interactive Growth Model® helps track the supply of existing services as well as approximate the appropriate amount of commercial and industrial land to service the future population.

Metro Forecasting Models has substantial experience assessing residential and commercial demand and supply to determine how your local economy compares to other similar areas. The IGM provides data on vacant land characteristics, commercial demand, industrial demand, shopping center and hotel demand, and future employment. Ensuring the community has the right mix of land uses is crucial to balancing the tax-base and providing a high quality of life for residents.

See why the Greater Naples Chamber of Commerce uses a Vacant Land Inventory Database.

Law Enforcement planning requires strategic and proactive consideration for the agency’s future needs. The Interactive Growth Model uses its future development forecasts to determine a law enforcement agency’s future workload and associated needs.

For the Collier County Sheriff’s Office Long-Range Master Plan, MFM developed a new prediction model to forecast incidents (calls for service). The number of anticipated incidents was used to forecast the workload of Law Enforcement Officers and support personnel. Then, the workload was used to understand the need for long-term hiring and future facilities. In Collier County, studying long-term growth was especially important because major projects in the planning stages now could be fully-developed towns in the next 20 to 30 years. The methodology used in the long-range plan allowed the sheriff’s office to extend their planning horizon over 50 years into the future.

See how Metro Forecasting Models established the first Collier County Sheriff’s Office Long-Range Master Plan.

Most student enrollment forecasts are based solely on historic increases in enrollment. The Interactive Growth Model® delivers an accurate forecast of students according to anticipated growth. The model can anticipate when major residential projects will develop which helps school planners anticipate enrollment spikes years in advance.

The Interactive Growth Model® Schools Submodel uses accurate forecast data to measure the impacts of projects on the number of school-aged children and new school plants needed. The model can also be used to test how policy changes will impact student enrollment and the need for new schools. By using a long-range forecast which accounts for development factors, your school district can confidently budget for future schools and acquire school sites before there are concerns about classroom capacity.

See how Lee County School District forecasted student enrollment with an accuracy of over 98%.

Services Tailored to Each Client

our services

Land Use Modeling

Forecast residential and non-residential development

Geospatial Population Forecasting

Population forecasting by custom study areas

Residential Demand & Supply Analysis

Accurate forecasts of single family and multifamily demand and supply

Commercial and Industrial Demand & Supply Analysis

The need for shopping centers and industrial sites

Facility Planning for Governments

Parks, schools, police stations, fire stations, and media centers

Support for Federally and State Recognized Indian Tribes

Highly sensitive population information and growth

Data for Transportation Planning

Accurate Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ) Socioeconomic Data

Data for Economic Development

Residential and commercial demand and supply

Law Enforcement Planning

Incidents and Workload

Student Enrollment and School Plant Forecasts

Test how policy changes impact school enrollment